Pending ●●●●●
By the end of the 2030s, almost every household (in developed markets) will have a humanoid robot at home.
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”TechnologyAI
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
By mid-2030, AI will be able to do 80% of the work of any economically valuable job humans do.
“Within the next five years, any economically valuable job humans can do, AI will be able to do 80% of it”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
AI will replace essentially all workers doing routine white-collar ("mundane intellectual") labor, possibly as far fewer people working with AI assistants, by about mid-2035.
“And I think for mundane intellectual labor, AI is just going to replace everybody.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Superintelligence (AI much smarter than humans at almost everything) will arrive within 10 to 20 years of June 2025, i.e. by June 2045.
“My guess is between 10 and 20 years we'll have superintelligence”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will soon eliminate the need for legal assistants and paralegals.
“Someone like a legal assistant or paralegal — they're not going to be needed for very long.”EconomyAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2027, robots that can do useful tasks in the real world will arrive.
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, AI systems capable of producing genuinely novel insights will arrive.
“2026 will likely see the arrival of systems that can figure out novel insights.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
US potential GDP growth will rise to about 4% a year by 2030, driven by AI and other technologies.
“The US economy’s potential growth will approach 4% by 2030”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By late October 2026, most of the code for Meta's AI (Llama) research efforts will be written by AI.
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By about April 2026, roughly half of Meta's (Llama) software development will be done by AI rather than people.
“our bet is sort of that in the next year... maybe half the development is going to be done by AI as opposed to people”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
AI systems reading medical images will become considerably better than expert human readers.
“And they're about comparable with the experts by now. They'll soon be considerably better because they'll have had a lot more experience.”HealthAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
AGI/superintelligence (AI surpassing humans across domains) will arrive by April 2035.
“there's a good chance it'll be here in 10 years or less now.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By about April 2035, AI systems will be able to come up with important new scientific problems or conjectures themselves, not just solve existing ones.
“I think actually in the next maybe five to ten years. I think we'll have systems that are capable of not only solving an important problem or conjecture in science but coming up with it in the first place.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI-driven robotics will have a breakthrough moment by about April 2027, with demonstrations of humanoid or other robots doing genuinely useful things.
“I also think another big area will be robotics. I think it will have a breakthrough moment in the next couple of years where we'll have demonstrations of maybe humanoid robots or other types of robots that can start really doing useful things.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will arrive within five to ten years, i.e. by April 2035.
“In the next five to ten years, I think.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence, as smart as the smartest human experts across fields, will exist within five years of April 2025 (by April 2030).
“within three to five years we'll have what is called general intelligence, AGI”AI
Partly right ●●●●●
By April 2026, AI systems will perform at the level of top graduate mathematics students.
“We also believe that within one year you will have graduate level mathematicians that are at the tippy top of graduate math programs.”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
By April 2026, the vast majority of human programmers will have been replaced by AI programmers.
“So we believe as an industry that in the next one year the vast majority of programmers will be replaced by AI programmers.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
US data centers will need an additional 29 GW of power by 2027 and a further 67 GW by 2030.
“One of the estimates that I think is most likely is that data centers will require an additional 29 gigawatts of power by 2027, and 67 more gigawatts by 2030.”EnergyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Annual worldwide data center build-out (capital spending) will reach $1 trillion within about two years, by March 2027.
“I've said before that I expect data center build out to reach a trillion dollars, and I am fairly certain we're going to reach that very soon”AITechnologyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Humanoid robots will be in widespread use (starting in factories) within a few years, before 2030.
“when, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, which is not five years away. This is not five-years-away problem, this is a few-years-away problem.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045, the bipedal/humanoid robot industry will be larger than the auto industry.
“I think what I would say is this business of bipedal robots or some equivalent like that in various form factors and configurations will be larger than the auto industry within 20 years.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
The US (Nvidia) will stay strongly ahead of China (Huawei) in AI chip hardware for the next ten years (to 2035); the gap will close only over 10-20 years.
“Nvidia is way ahead of Huawei, which is the main producer of—which is the main producer of chips for China. Like something like four years ahead. I think that gap is going to close eventually, over the course of, I don’t know, ten or twenty years. Probably the export controls ma…”GeopoliticsAITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Within two to four years (by March 2029), AI models will be as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across many fields and able to do any remote computer work, including tasks lasting days to months.
“the same exponential trends, the same arguments that predicted that, predict that if we go forward another two years, three years, maybe four years, we will get to all of this. We will get to models that are as intelligent as Nobel Prize winners across a whole bunch of fields.”AI
Partly right ●●●●●
AI will be writing 90% of all code within three to six months (by September 2025), and may be writing essentially all code within twelve months.
“we are not far from the world—I think we’ll be there in three to six months—where AI is writing 90 percent of the code. And then in twelve months, we may be in a world where AI is writing essentially all of the code.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI systems with capabilities akin to a "country of geniuses in a datacenter" will exist possibly by 2026-2027 and almost certainly no later than 2030.
“Possibly by 2026 or 2027 (and almost certainly no later than 2030), the capabilities of AI systems will be best thought of as akin to an entirely new state populated by highly intelligent people appearing on the global stage—a "country of geniuses in a datacenter"”AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2025, an OpenAI model will rank as the world's number one competitive programmer.
“I think our internal benchmark is now around 50, and maybe we'll hit number one by the end of this year.”AI
Accurate ●●●●●
Despite AI advances, people in 2025 will spend their time mostly the same way they did in 2024.
“Life will go on mostly the same in the short run, and people in 2025 will mostly spend their time in the same way they did in 2024.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2035, AI will make expert-quality medical advice and tutoring (the expertise of a great doctor or teacher) free and commonplace.
“with AI, over the next decade, that will become free, commonplace — great medical advice, great tutoring,”AIHealth
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will arrive sooner than his previous "two or three years" forecast, i.e. by the end of 2027.
“But now I have corrected that statement and I feel that AGI will actually arrive much sooner than that”AI