Partly right ●●●●●
By the end of 2024, Meta AI will be the most used AI assistant in the world.
“We had a strong quarter, and Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year”AITechnology
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial superintelligence ten thousand times more intelligent than humans will be realized by about 2034.
“While expert opinions may vary, my view is that ASI will be ten thousand times more intelligent than humans and realized in about ten years.”AI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
During 2025, Meta's Llama models will become the most advanced AI models in the industry.
“Starting next year, we expect future Llama models to become the most advanced in the industry.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By mid-2039, free or near-free AI doctors will be available to everybody on the planet.
“I'm almost certain, within the next 10-15 years, we can have free doctors for everybody on the planet, or near-free, with the cost of computing”HealthAI
Pending ●●●●●
Within about a decade AI will greatly raise productivity and shift jobs and wages between industries.
“I think it will change the world tremendously in terms of people’s productivity and there will be a remapping of jobs, I think, and wage structure from some industries to others”AIEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
Within a year (by mid-2025), AI systems with very large context windows, AI agents and text-to-action capabilities will arrive.
“In the next year, you're going to see very large context windows, agents, and text to action. When they are delivered at scale, it's going to have an impact on the world at a scale that no one understands yet”AITechnology
Inaccurate ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist by around the end of 2025.
“My guess is that we'll have AI that is smarter than any one human probably around the end of next year”AI
Partly right ●●●●●
No "mindblowing" GPT-5-class leap in language models will be released in 2024.
“But will we see a mindblowing GPT this year? I doubt it.”AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
LLM hallucination rates will not be brought down to human-expert levels by the end of 2024.
“If hallucinations were brought down to human expert levels by the end of 2024 I would be truly astonished.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Generative AI will not produce a productivity boom (a sharp, sustained jump in US productivity growth) by March 2029.
“I don’t think that this is going to drive a productivity miracle in the next three to five years”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Within five to ten years (by 2034), real-time computer graphics such as games will largely have every pixel generated by AI rather than rendered.
“And so I would say that within the next five to ten years, somewhere in between, it's largely the case.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will be smarter than all humans combined by the end of 2029.
“By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
The vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open-source AI platforms.
“So the direction of inevitable direction of history is that the vast majority of AI systems will be built on top of open source platforms.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Human-level AI systems (with hierarchical planning and brain-like flexibility) will not exist before March 2034.
“all of this is going to take at least a decade and probably much more”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2029, AI will do well on every test humans can devise (Huang's test-based definition of AGI).
“If I gave an AI ... every single test that you can possibly imagine, you make that list of tests and put it in front of the computer science industry, and I'm guessing in five years' time, we'll do well on every single one”AI
Partly right ●●●●●
In 2025, AI developers will be unable to find enough electricity to run all their AI chips.
“Then, the next shortage will be electricity. They won't be able to find enough electricity to run all the chips. I think next year, you'll see they just can't find enough electricity to run all the chips.”EnergyAI
Inaccurate ●●●●●
AI chatbot hallucinations will be largely eliminated within about a year (by end of 2025), with outputs as accurate as web content.
“I'm very convinced that we're going to largely eliminate hallucinations over the next year. And they're going to be as accurate as any content that you can find on the web”AI
Pending ●●●●●
The global installed base of data centers will double from about $1 trillion to about $2 trillion by early 2029.
“Over the course of the next four or five years, we’ll have $2 trillion worth of data centers that will be powering software around the world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By January 2029 (and certainly before 2030), AI able to act as an autonomous entrepreneur/inventor that can design, manufacture, market and sell a product for profit will be widely available and very cheap.
“I'm pretty sure that within the next five years, certainly before the end of the decade, we are going to have not just those capabilities, but those capabilities widely available for very cheap, potentially even in open source”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
The US will not pass a law making it illegal to produce or share fake images or videos unless they are marked as fake, through 2033.
“the legislation will not happen in the U.S. because one of the major political parties has tied its fate to the successful propagation of fake news.”PoliticsAI
Pending ●●●●●
By November 2028, AI agents will let people do tasks by telling their device in everyday language, so they no longer need separate apps for different tasks.
“In the next five years, this will change completely. You won’t have to use different apps for different tasks. You’ll simply tell your device, in everyday language, what you want to do.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
The singularity / artificial general intelligence surpassing human intelligence in almost all areas will arrive by the end of 2033.
“The singularity is coming in the next ten years”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Because of AI, the next generation will typically work a three-and-a-half-day week.
“And literally they'll probably be working three-and-a-half days a week.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Thanks to AI and other technology, today's children will typically live to 100 without getting cancer.
“Your children are going to live to 100 and not have cancer because of technology.”HealthAI
Pending ●●●●●
A one-person company will reach a $1 billion valuation, enabled by AI.
“Which would have been unimaginable without AI and now will happen.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By September 2028, essentially everyone will have their own AI personal assistant acting as a 'chief of staff' that knows their personal history and manages their day.
“The way I see it is that in 5 years, everybody is gonna have their own 'chief of staff,'”AITechnology
Partly right ●●●●●
AI-generated misinformation on social media will make the 2024 elections a mess.
“The 2024 elections are going to be a mess because social media is not protecting us from false generated AI”ElectionsAI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will not cause mass unemployment (inferred window: about 10 years, to mid-2033).
“AI will not cause mass unemployment”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Every child will have access to a personal AI tutor.
“Every child will have an AI tutor that is infinitely patient, infinitely compassionate, infinitely knowledgeable, infinitely helpful.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI will cause economy-wide productivity growth to accelerate dramatically.
“Productivity growth throughout the economy will accelerate dramatically”AIEconomy