Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will default on its debt and leave the eurozone by the end of 2013.
“it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone.”EconomyPolitics
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Greece will exit the euro within months ("very possibly" in June 2012), as the first step of the euro's endgame.
“1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.”EconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
The US housing market will hit bottom and turn upward within about a year (by March 2013).
“I believe we’re very close to the inflection point. People look at prices that are still coming down but all the other signs are flashing green,”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
By August 2021, many more industries will be disrupted by software, mostly by new Silicon Valley companies.
“Over the next 10 years, I expect many more industries to be disrupted by software, with new world-beating Silicon Valley companies doing the disruption in more cases than not.”TechnologyEconomy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
China's economy will suffer a hard landing (a sharp growth collapse) sometime after 2013.
“There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Over roughly the next decade from 2011, raw material prices will keep rising and resource shortages will be common.
“we now live in a different, more constrained, world in which prices of raw materials will rise and shortages will be common.”EconomyMarkets
Right, but late ●●●●●
A US housing recovery will begin by about early 2012.
“A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so. In any event, it is certain to occur at some point.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
About half of the 800-plus troubled small and medium-sized US banks (roughly 400 banks) will fail (inferred window about four years, to end-2014).
“The biggest banks have been backstopped, but 800-plus small- and medium-sized banks in the US remain on the critical list and half of those will go bust.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US residential housing problems will largely be over by about early 2011.
“within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US dollar will collapse, losing 50-70% of its value, before the end of Barack Obama's first term (January 2013).
“I think it will happen before Barack Obama leaves office even if he's only a one-termer. The first initial collapse in the dollar will be about a 50%, 60%, or 70% decline in dollar value.”EconomyMarkets
Accurate ●●●●●
Developed-world real GDP growth will average only about 2% (perhaps 2.25%) a year over the seven years to 2016.
“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2 percent real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25 percent) down from the 3.5 percent to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Global stimulus will revive the economies of large countries including the US and China by late 2009 or early 2010.
“The current stimulus is so extensive globally that surely it will kick up the economies of at least some of the larger countries, including the US and China, by late this year or early next year. (This seems about 80 percent probable to me, anyway.)”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
The US economy will be in shambles throughout 2009.
“We're certain, for example, that the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 — and, for that matter, probably well beyond”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
2010-2012 will bring the worst economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s, worse than 2008.
“2010 to 2012 will bring on the greatest economic and banking crisis since the early 1930s”EconomyBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
The economy will not bounce back quickly from the 2008-09 recession but will instead rebuild slowly from a lower base.
“The economy shrinks and then it doesn't rebound, it rebuilds from a lower base. We're not expecting a bounce.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
US GDP will keep contracting throughout 2009, for a cumulative output loss of about 5%, in a recession lasting close to two years.
“U.S. gross domestic product will continue to contract throughout 2009 for a cumulative output loss of 5% and a recession that will last close to two years.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US unemployment will rise and business activity will weaken in the near term (about a year) after October 2008.
“In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
The U.S. housing market will bottom and turn around on June 30, 2009.
“In fact, I’ll call the precise date of the housing-market turnaround. It will begin on June 30, 2009.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will cut the federal funds rate to about 3.5% and then begin raising it in the second half of 2008.
“I believe that the Fed will get rates down to 3.5%, before ratcheting them upward in the second half of next year.”BankingEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will avoid a recession in 2008, with real GDP growth of 1.5% to 2.5% for the year.
“Overall I expect 1.5% to 2.5% GDP growth in 2008 and I believe the economy will avoid a recession.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Lenders and the government will tighten credit standards and US home prices will fall sharply from their highs.
“You're going to start to see both the government and the lenders re-imposing lending standards and tightening up on credit. And these sky-high real estate prices are going to come crashing back down to earth.”EconomyBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will suffer a hard landing and fall into recession, driven by a housing bust (probability above 70%; inferred window about two years, to Sept 2008).
“U.S. Hard Landing and Recession Steaming Ahead: Now More Likely Than a 70% Probability”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US house prices will fall a long way and homebuilding will go through a prolonged slump after the 2006 peak.
“If history is any guide, housing prices have got a long way to fall and the housing industry is going to go through a long drought.”EconomyMarketsBanking
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumers will cut spending and rebuild savings as their home equity evaporates, pushing the US economy into a recession.
“And what's going to happen is the American consumer is basically going to stop consuming and start rebuilding his savings, especially when he sees his home equity evaporate. And when you have the economy 70 percent consumption, you can't address those imbalances without a recess…”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Bush-era deficits will lead to a US fiscal crisis in which the government turns to printing money and interest rates soar.
“My prediction is that politicians will eventually be tempted to resolve the crisis the way irresponsible governments usually do: by printing money, both to pay current bills and to inflate away debt. And as that temptation becomes obvious, interest rates will soar.”EconomyMarketsPolitics
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US real GDP will grow at a 3% to 4% annualized rate in the second half of 2002.
“We’re on the road to 3% to 4% growth in the second half of this year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US will go through a deflationary, 1930s-style depression from 2010 to 2023.
“From 2010 to 2023 we will see a depressionary, deflationary downturn that will look and feel like the 30s.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
PayPal will make it nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal citizens' wealth through inflation and currency devaluation, because people will switch to stronger currencies.
“It will be nearly impossible for corrupt governments to steal wealth from their people through their old means”TechnologyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Yardeni put a 70% probability on a Y2K-triggered worldwide recession starting in January 2000, lasting about 12 months and as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.
“Currently, I believe there is a 70 percent chance of such a worldwide recession, which could last 12 months starting in January 2000 and could be as severe as the 1973-74 global recession.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US economy will expand continuously, without recession, from 1999 through 2009.
“Despite occasional corrections, the ten years leading up to 2009 have seen continuous economic expansion and prosperity”Economy