Unresolvable ●●●●●
The AI stock bubble will burst within about a year, i.e. by the end of September 2027 (moved up from his earlier 2028 base case).
“the bubble in AI may burst sooner than later.”AIMarkets
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
Real GDP growth will regularly exceed 7% a year at some point between late 2029 and September 2031, driven by AI.
“We think that during the next three to five years, we will be seeing regularly and perhaps on average growth north of 7%”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Within about two years (by March 2028), customers will be paying $1,000 per million tokens for some high-intelligence AI model output.
“the idea that somebody's willing to pay $1000 per million tokens is just around the corner. It's not if, it's only when.”AIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Driven by AI, world GDP growth will accelerate above its pre-AI trend (roughly 3% a year) within about a decade, by 2036.
“And so when you take these things in combination, I am absolutely certain that the world's GDP is going to accelerate in growth.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By February 2027, a majority of companies will follow Block in making large AI-driven workforce cuts and structural changes.
“Within the next year, I believe the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion and make similar structural changes.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2050, AI-driven near-free goods and services will mean people no longer need jobs to live.
“By 2050, it'll be very clear that nobody needs jobs because with enough production of goods and services that are near free, you won't need jobs.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of 2030, the IT services and business process outsourcing (BPO) industries will have disappeared, replaced by AI.
“By 2030, there will be no such thing as IT services or BPO, they will be gone.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By August 2027, most computer-based white-collar tasks (law, accounting, project management, marketing) will be fully automated by AI.
“So white-collar work, where you're sitting down at a computer, either being a lawyer or an accountant or a project manager or a marketing person — most of those tasks will be fully automated by an AI within the next 12 to 18 months.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Within several years (by about 2030), most glasses people wear will be AI glasses.
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
"Powerful AI" (smarter than a Nobel Prize winner across most fields, working autonomously) will very likely arrive within the next few years (by about early 2029); he gives only "a decent chance" to its arriving within 1-2 years.
“not that powerful AI is definitely coming in 1–2 years, but that there’s a decent chance it does, and a very strong chance it comes in the next few.”AI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
AI will displace about half of all entry-level white-collar jobs within 1-5 years of his May 2025 warning (by mid-2030).
“This is a topic that I warned about very publicly in 2025, where I predicted that AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years, even as it accelerates economic growth and scientific progress.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Human-level AI will not be achieved within two years of January 2026, i.e. not by end of January 2028 (and when it comes it will not be built on LLMs).
“We are going to have AI systems that have humanlike and human-level intelligence, but they’re not going to be built on LLMs, and it’s not going to happen next year or two years from now.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
AI smarter than any single human will exist no later than the end of 2027.
“I think we might have AI that is smarter than any human by the end of this year … No later than next year.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2031, everybody will have a personal AI companion that sees and hears what they do and knows them intimately.
“In five years' time, everybody will have their own AI companion who knows them so intimately and so personally that they will come to live life alongside you”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
AI will exceed the combined intelligence of all humans by the end of 2030.
“I’m confident by 2030, AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined.”AI
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence (AI performing at or above human level) will be achieved in 2026.
“I think we’ll hit AGI next year in ‘26”AI
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, domestic humanoid robots such as Tesla Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos, with very little real product in homes.
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
AI will be an election issue in the November 2026 US midterm elections, for the first time.
“In the midterms, AI will be an election issue for first time.”ElectionsAIPolitics
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 or 2027.
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI's annual revenue will top $100 billion in 2027.
“How about '27?”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
OpenAI will become a hyperscale company valued at more than $2 trillion.
“OpenAI is very likely going to be the world's next multitrillion-dollar hyperscale company”MarketsAI
Pending ●●●●●
By 2030, AI models will be extraordinarily capable and able to do things humans themselves cannot do.
“by the end of this decade, by 2030, if we don't have extraordinarily capable models that do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”AI
Pending ●●●●●
A large share of current phone and online customer-support workers will lose their jobs to AI (no window given; inferred about 10 years, to 2035).
“I'm confident that a lot of current customer support that happens over a phone or computer, those people will lose their jobs, and that'll be better done by an AI.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
AI will cause massive unemployment alongside a large rise in corporate profits.
“It's going to create massive unemployment and a huge rise in profits.”EconomyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Spending on AI infrastructure will reach $3 trillion to $4 trillion (per year) by 2030.
“We see $3 trillion to $4 trillion in AI infrastructure spend by the end of the decade.”AIMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
By about 2035 a small number of artificial-superintelligence leader companies will generate value equal to at least 5% of global GDP (around ¥1,300 trillion).
“I believe that 10 years from now, a small number of ASI leaders will be generating value on a scale equivalent to at least 5% of global GDP—around ¥1,300 trillion.”AIEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
Context-aware AI glasses will become people's primary computing devices, replacing phones (no date given; inferred long-run window of about 10 years, to 2035).
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By July 2030, AI systems will materially help solve materials problems such as new solar materials, room-temperature superconductors or optimal batteries.
“New types of solar material, solar panel material room temperature superconductors has always been on my list of dream breakthroughs, and optimal batteries. And I think a solution to any one of those things would be absolutely revolutionary for climate and energy usage. And we'r…”AIEnergyClimate
Pending ●●●●●
Superhuman AI of the kind described in the AI 2027 scenario will not arrive by the end of 2027.
“I acknowledge that I personally have longer-than-2027 timelines”AI
Pending ●●●●●
The 2030s will see a higher rate of Fortune 500 companies failing or dropping off the list than any previous decade.
“One of my predictions is the 2030s will see a faster rate of demise of Fortune 500 companies than we've ever seen”EconomyAI