Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation in the post-pandemic surge will not reach double digits (10% or more).
“we're not going to get to double digit inflation”Economy
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation (6.8% in November 2021) is at its peak and will come down sooner than most people expect, i.e. during the first half of 2022.
“peak of the crisis, and I think you'll see it change sooner than—quicker than—more rapidly than it will take than most people think.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
In the second half of 2022, US inflation will be moving back toward the normal 2% rate.
“Sometime during the second half of the year we'll see inflation rates moving back toward the 2% that we regard as normal.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
Many of the pandemic supply-chain bottlenecks will ease during 2022.
“I expect that next year, many of the supply bottlenecks that we're experiencing now in opening up our economy will recede”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
Global supply chain and US port bottlenecks will work themselves out during 2022.
“And I think this stuff will work itself out over the course of next year.”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2031, the metaverse will reach a billion people and host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce.
“Our hope is that within the next decade, the metaverse will reach a billion people, host hundreds of billions of dollars of digital commerce, and support jobs for millions of creators and developers.”TechnologyEconomy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US goods prices will start falling (inflation will unwind) soon after the 2021 holiday season, in early 2022.
“As a result, once the holiday season passes and companies face excess supplies, prices should unwind.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
US inflation will get back to the roughly 2% range during 2022.
“Well, I expect that to happen next year.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Hyperinflation is imminent and will soon hit the United States and then the rest of the world.
“Hyperinflation is going to change everything. It’s happening.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The current central-bank/fiat monetary regime, signalled by bitcoin's rise, is about to blow up (within about two years, by end of 2023).
“It's the most honest market we have in the country, and it's telling us that this decrepit … regime is just about to blow up.”EconomyCryptoBanking
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Fed will "wimp out" and postpone finishing its taper and raising interest rates in the face of stagflation (inferred window about one year, to end-2022).
“They are going to postpone any finishing of tapering or raising rates.”EconomyMarkets
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The US budget reconciliation package will include the changes needed to bring the US into compliance with the OECD 15% global minimum tax.
“Yes. I am confident that what we need to do to come into compliance with the minimum tax will be included in a reconciliation package.”PoliticsEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will run higher than the Federal Reserve's own projections (Sept 2021 median: 2.2% PCE inflation for 2022).
“I think inflation will remain higher than the Federal Reserve expects and we're going to have to do something about it.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US Treasury yields will be meaningfully higher by the turn of the year 2021-22 than in July 2021.
“come the turn of the year, I think we are going to have meaningfully higher yields as people realize the economy is going to make a big recovery.”MarketsEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
The US economy will be extremely strong in fall 2021 (Q3-Q4 2021), with a massive boom despite the Delta variant.
“We are going to have an extremely strong economy coming in the fall”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Most of the US price increases seen in mid-2021 will prove temporary rather than becoming sustained inflation.
“Our experts believe and the data shows that most of the price increases we've seen are—were expected and expected to be temporary.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
The Federal Reserve will not need to tighten monetary policy to cool post-pandemic inflation.
“For what it's worth, I don't think tapping the brakes will actually be required.”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Oil prices will soon follow lumber and copper lower (falling from mid-2021 levels by the end of 2021).
“We believe oil prices will not be far behind, despite the significant cutbacks in energy-related capital spending”EnergyEconomy
Accurate ●●●●●
US job creation will be strong over summer 2021 and into the fall of 2021.
“So you put all those together, I would expect that we would see strong job creation building up over the summer and going into--going into the fall.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The 2021 rise in US inflation will prove persistent rather than transitory, forcing higher rates.
“We have a lot of cash and capability and we're going to be very patient, because I think you have a very good chance inflation will be more than transitory,”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
High annual US inflation rates will persist for several more months, through the end of 2021.
“I expect it to last, however, for several more months and to see high annual rates of inflation through the end of this year”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The US unemployment rate will fall below 4 percent by the end of May 2022.
“Job openings are at record levels, and unemployment may well fall below 4 percent in the next 12 months.”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
US consumer prices will rise about 20% cumulatively over the three to four years from May 2021 (by May 2025).
“I believe in the next three, four years cumulatively we're going to have 20% inflation”Economy
Inaccurate ●●●●●
Reopening price increases in 2021 will not lead to persistently higher US inflation above the Fed's 2% goal.
“In an episode of one-time price increases as the economy reopens is not the same thing as, and is not likely to lead to, persistently higher year-over-year inflation into the future”Economy
Accurate ●●●●●
The US economy will boom (very strong growth) as the pandemic ends, in 2021-2022.
“I have little doubt that with excess savings, new stimulus savings, huge deficit spending, more QE, a new potential infrastructure bill, a successful vaccine and euphoria around the end of the pandemic, the U.S. economy will likely boom,”Economy
Unresolvable ●●●●●
The post-pandemic US economic boom will continue into 2023.
“This boom could easily run into 2023.”Economy
Partly right ●●●●●
Thanks to COVID-19 vaccines, the world will be basically completely back to pre-pandemic normal by the end of 2022.
“By the end of 2022 we should be basically completely back to normal”HealthEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2031, AI-driven machines will be doing assembly-line work (and possibly serving as companions).
“In the next decade, they will do assembly-line work and maybe even become companions.”AIEconomy
Partly right ●●●●●
In the coming inflationary crisis, governments will move to suppress Bitcoin and gold as competitors to their currencies (inferred window: about two years, to Feb 2023).
“In an inflationary crisis, governments will move to squash competitors in the currency arena. $BTC #gold.”CryptoEconomyPolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
US inflation will rise substantially as the economy reopens from COVID with more stimulus (inferred window: about two years, to Feb 2023).
“Prepare for #inflation”Economy