Pending ●●●●●
Within several years (by about 2030), most glasses people wear will be AI glasses.
“It's hard to imagine a world in several years where most glasses that people wear aren't AI glasses.”TechnologyAI
Who gets the future right?
A public record of predictions made by well-known people: their exact words, when they said them, and how things turned out.
Scorecard
| Person | Category | Predictions | Scored | Accurate | Late | Partial | Wrong | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | Politician | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 31% |
| Allan Lichtman | Academic | 10 | 8 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 81% |
| Anthony Fauci | Scientist | 16 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 82% |
| Barack Obama | Politician | 9 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 67% |
| Bill Ackman | Investor | 9 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| Bill Gates | Tech leader | 21 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 55% |
| Bill McKibben | Commentator | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 90% |
| Cathie Wood | Investor | 23 | 15 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 37% |
| Daniel Kokotajlo | AI researcher | 8 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 94% |
| Dario Amodei | Tech leader | 13 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Demis Hassabis | AI researcher | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Donald Trump | Politician | 23 | 19 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21% |
| Ed Yardeni | Market strategist | 16 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 75% |
| Elon Musk | Tech leader | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Eric Schmidt | Tech leader | 16 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 41% |
| Gary Marcus | AI researcher | 18 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 83% |
| Geoffrey Hinton | AI researcher | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Gordon Chang | Commentator | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42% |
| Harry Dent | Market strategist | 18 | 17 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 24% |
| Ian Bremmer | Commentator | 11 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 82% |
| Jack Dorsey | Tech leader | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| James Hansen | Scientist | 17 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90% |
| Jamie Dimon | Business leader | 16 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 60% |
| Janet Yellen | Policymaker | 13 | 12 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 67% |
| Jensen Huang | Tech leader | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Jeremy Grantham | Investor | 9 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 50% |
| Jeremy Siegel | Economist | 19 | 16 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 56% |
| Jerome Powell | Policymaker | 15 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 71% |
| Jim Cramer | Commentator | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 15% |
| Joe Biden | Politician | 16 | 14 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 64% |
| John Mearsheimer | Academic | 11 | 9 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 78% |
| Kevin Hassett | Economist | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 27% |
| Larry Summers | Economist | 19 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 36% |
| Marc Andreessen | Investor | 14 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 75% |
| Mark Zuckerberg | Tech leader | 16 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 64% |
| Masayoshi Son | Investor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | — |
| Michael Burry | Investor | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 56% |
| Michael Saylor | Crypto figure | 15 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 36% |
| Michio Kaku | Scientist | 13 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 30% |
| Mohamed El-Erian | Economist | 17 | 17 | 10 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 71% |
| Mustafa Suleyman | Tech leader | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Nancy Pelosi | Politician | 10 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 20% |
| Nate Silver | Commentator | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 57% |
| Nouriel Roubini | Economist | 25 | 20 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 35% |
| Paul Ehrlich | Scientist | 13 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 5% |
| Paul Krugman | Economist | 22 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 47% |
| Peter Schiff | Investor | 27 | 23 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 16 | 24% |
| Peter Thiel | Investor | 8 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 10% |
| Peter Zeihan | Commentator | 16 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 19% |
| Ray Dalio | Investor | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 40% |
| Ray Kurzweil | Futurist | 26 | 19 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 9 | 37% |
| Robert Kiyosaki | Commentator | 14 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 33% |
| Sam Altman | Tech leader | 16 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 88% |
| Stephen Hawking | Scientist | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 33% |
| Steve Ballmer | Tech leader | 9 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 36% |
| Thomas Friedman | Commentator | 7 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 64% |
| Tom Lee | Market strategist | 15 | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 39% |
| Vinod Khosla | Investor | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17% |
| Vitalik Buterin | Crypto figure | 9 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 75% |
| Warren Buffett | Investor | 10 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 75% |
| Yann LeCun | AI researcher | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Accuracy counts accurate as 1, late or partial as ½, inaccurate as 0. Pending predictions don't count.
Predictions
Pending ●●●●●
By early 2031, everybody will have a personal AI companion that sees and hears what they do and knows them intimately.
“In five years' time, everybody will have their own AI companion who knows them so intimately and so personally that they will come to live life alongside you”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
In 2026, domestic humanoid robots such as Tesla Optimus and Figure will be mostly demos, with very little real product in homes.
“Human domestic robots like Optimus and Figure will be all demo and very little product.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved in 2026 or 2027.
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Context-aware AI glasses will become people's primary computing devices, replacing phones (no date given; inferred long-run window of about 10 years, to 2035).
“Personal devices like glasses that understand our context because they can see what we see, hear what we hear, and interact with us throughout the day will become our primary computing devices.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
By the end of the 2030s, almost every household (in developed markets) will have a humanoid robot at home.
“almost everybody in the 2030s will have a humanoid robot at home”TechnologyAI
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By the end of 2027, robots that can do useful tasks in the real world will arrive.
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By late October 2026, most of the code for Meta's AI (Llama) research efforts will be written by AI.
“I would guess that sometime in the next 12 to 18 months, we'll reach the point where most of the code that's going toward these efforts is written by AI.”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
By about April 2026, roughly half of Meta's (Llama) software development will be done by AI rather than people.
“our bet is sort of that in the next year... maybe half the development is going to be done by AI as opposed to people”AITechnology
Unresolvable ●●●●●
A cyberattack will take down a Canadian bank by April 2035.
“But over the next 10 years, I wouldn't be at all surprised if there was a cyber attack that took down a Canadian bank.”BankingTechnology
Pending ●●●●●
AI-driven robotics will have a breakthrough moment by about April 2027, with demonstrations of humanoid or other robots doing genuinely useful things.
“I also think another big area will be robotics. I think it will have a breakthrough moment in the next couple of years where we'll have demonstrations of maybe humanoid robots or other types of robots that can start really doing useful things.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
Annual worldwide data center build-out (capital spending) will reach $1 trillion within about two years, by March 2027.
“I've said before that I expect data center build out to reach a trillion dollars, and I am fairly certain we're going to reach that very soon”AITechnologyMarkets
Pending ●●●●●
Humanoid robots will be in widespread use (starting in factories) within a few years, before 2030.
“when, literally, humanoid robots are wandering around, which is not five years away. This is not five-years-away problem, this is a few-years-away problem.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2045, the bipedal/humanoid robot industry will be larger than the auto industry.
“I think what I would say is this business of bipedal robots or some equivalent like that in various form factors and configurations will be larger than the auto industry within 20 years.”TechnologyAI
Pending ●●●●●
The US (Nvidia) will stay strongly ahead of China (Huawei) in AI chip hardware for the next ten years (to 2035); the gap will close only over 10-20 years.
“Nvidia is way ahead of Huawei, which is the main producer of—which is the main producer of chips for China. Like something like four years ahead. I think that gap is going to close eventually, over the course of, I don’t know, ten or twenty years. Probably the export controls ma…”GeopoliticsAITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
By 2026-2027, multiple US companies will each have millions of AI chips (costing tens of billions of dollars).
“This means that in 2026-2027 we could end up in one of two starkly different worlds. In the US, multiple companies will definitely have the required millions of chips (at the cost of tens of billions of dollars).”AITechnologyGeopolitics
Pending ●●●●●
Threads will become the leading online discussion platform and reach 1 billion users within the next several years.
“I expect Threads to continue on its trajectory to become the leading discussion platform and eventually reach 1 billion people over the next several years.”Technology
Partly right ●●●●●
During 2025 it will become possible to build an AI engineering agent with the coding and problem-solving ability of a good mid-level software engineer.
“I also expect that 2025 will be the year when it becomes possible to build an AI engineering agent that has coding and problem-solving abilities of around a good mid-level engineer.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
Very useful quantum computers will not arrive before roughly 2040, most likely around 2045, and by 2055 at the latest.
“15 years for useful quantum computers and that would be on the early side. 30 years is probably on the late side. If you picked 20 years a whole bunch of us would believe it.”Technology
Pending ●●●●●
Helion will soon (within about two years, by early 2027) demonstrate net-gain fusion, showing that fusion works.
“Soon. Well, soon there will be a demonstration of net-gain fusion. … But I would expect Helion will show you that fusion works soon.”EnergyTechnology
Partly right ●●●●●
During 2025 no AI lab will hold a technical moat: US and Chinese models will converge, and some European models will catch up to roughly the same level.
“Technical moat will continue to be elusive. Instead, there will be more convergence on broadly similar models, across both US and China; some systems in Europe will catch up to roughly the same place.”AITechnologyGeopolitics
Accurate ●●●●●
By the end of 2025, no single AI system will be able to do more than 4 of the 10 Marcus-Brundage benchmark tasks.
“No single system will solve more than 4 of the AI 2027 Marcus-Brundage tasks by the end of 2025.”AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2025 nobody will release a humanoid robot remotely as capable as a general household robot ("Rosie the Robot").
“Humanoid robotics will see a lot of hype, but nobody will release anything to remotely as capable as Rosie the Robot.”AITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
In 2025, profits from AI models (as opposed to chips) will remain modest or nonexistent.
“Profits from AI models will continue to be modest or nonexistent”AITechnologyMarkets
Partly right ●●●●●
Through 2025, truly driverless cars will be in use in only a modest number of cities, mainly in the West and in good weather.
“Truly driverless cars, in which no human is required to attend to traffic, will continue to see usage limited to a modest number of cities, mainly in the West, mainly in good weather.”Self-drivingAITechnology
Accurate ●●●●●
Artificial general intelligence will not be achieved by the end of 2025.
“We will not see artificial general intelligence this year, despite claims by Elon Musk to the contrary.”AITechnology
Pending ●●●●●
For the next 2-4 years (to November 2028), human programmers will keep a huge role and programming will survive as a job, though the work becomes less line-by-line coding.
“But I think in the near term, and maybe even in the medium term, medium term like 2, 3, 4 years, I expect that humans will continue to have a huge role and the nature of programming will change, but programming as a role, programming as a job will not change.”AITechnologyEconomy
Pending ●●●●●
By 2040 there will be more humanoid robots in the world than people (roughly 9-10 billion or more).
“I think by 2040 probably there are more humanoid robots than there are people”TechnologyAI
Accurate ●●●●●
Within about two years of September 2024, AI models will act as autonomous personal assistants that carry out specific tasks on users' behalf.
“AI models will soon serve as autonomous personal assistants who carry out specific tasks on our behalf like coordinating medical care on your behalf.”AITechnology
Partly right ●●●●●
By the end of 2024, Meta AI will be the most used AI assistant in the world.
“We had a strong quarter, and Meta AI is on track to be the most used AI assistant in the world by the end of the year”AITechnology